The focus of the markets remains on UK this week. Every day except Monday there is an event related to the Bank of England. Without doubt the most important meeting of the regulator on Thursday. The Bank will publish important documents, and Governor Mark Carney, who after a wave of resignations in politics in Britain has become a sustainer of stability, will make a number of announcements. There are also interesting macroeconomic data from other countries.
In the Monday, July 11, there is a meeting of the Eurogroup. The finance ministers of the Eurozone countries, ECB President Mario Draghi and EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Pierre Moscovici.
On Tuesday, July 12, the German Statistical Office will publish final inflation data in June. Bank of England (BoE) published the minutes of the last meeting of the fiscal policy. The Commission published its report last week, but the meeting was a last. It is from the report showed that BoE lowered the counter-cyclical capital buffer of 0.5% to 0% with immediate effect in order to free up capital in the banking system and encourage lending. The same day the British Parliament will run the hearings of the central bankers last inflation report, which was released in May and contains forecasts for consumer prices and economic growth. The questions of MPs will meet Governor Mark Carney and several members of the Committee on monetary policy. The hearings last several hours and generally have the potential to move the market.
On Wednesday, July 13, China will publish data on its trade balance. BoE publish its survey on credit conditions in the country over the past three months, as well as prospects in the coming three months. USA will publish data on import prices. The Canadian central bank meeting on monetary policy.
On Thursday, July 14, there will be unemployment data in Australia and will meet the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. After relaxations in lending last week spoke of a possible reduction in interest rates in the UK. About 66% of them expect the bank to refrain from action. 17 of them allowed a decrease of 25 basis points to 0.25%. The average estimate of the experts is that by the end of the third quarter will decrease to 0.25%, and this level will remain until the end of 2017. During a press conference following the publication of the report on financial stability Mark Carney said that any action in the field of monetary policy must be measured very well and be careful of unintended consequences of ultra-low interest rates. In all likelihood, the manager had in mind the difficulties of banks to achieve a profit in an environment of low interest rates. Some analysts believe that BoE may resort to quantitative easing by buying bonds. At this meeting there will be no macroeconomic forecasts. We will look at the next meeting on August 4. BoE previous forecasts were based on the assumption that British support staying in the European Union. USA will publish data on changes in input prices, as well as the traditional weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits.
On Friday, July 15, China published data on GDP in the second quarter. Expected growth to be as it was in the period from January to March: 6.7%. It was a slowdown compared to the last quarter of 2015 when growth amounted to 6.9%. China will announce data on industrial production. The Governor of the BoE Mark Carney will have a statement in Toronto at a conference on climate change and the financial markets. Eurostat will publish final data on inflation in the eurozone in June. Preliminary information was that monetary union has emerged from deflation, with consumer price growth of 0.1% yoy. Inflation data will be in the United States. The American Statistics will publish data on retail sales and industrial production.
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